Prospect of Ukraine ceasefire still uncertain despite Trump's optimism

 

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Vladimir Putin of trying to "sabotage" diplomatic efforts to secure an immediate ceasefire.

In a post on social media, he urged the US to put more pressure on the Russian president, saying only the "strength of America" could end the war.

The Ukrainian leader said Putin was "doing everything he can to sabotage diplomacy by setting extremely difficult and unacceptable conditions right from the start even before a ceasefire".

He raised the Kursk border region, where Russian forces are retaking territory occupied by Ukraine six months ago. He accused Ukrainian forces of "heinous crimes against civilians" – something Kyiv denies - and asked whether they should walk free or surrender.

He asked about whether Ukraine would use a ceasefire to mobilise, retrain and resupply its troops, without suggesting his forces might do the same.

And Putin raised numerous questions about how a ceasefire could be monitored and policed along the frontline in the east. "Who will be able to determine who violated the potential ceasefire agreement over a distance of 2,000 km and where exactly?" he asked. "Who will be held responsible for violating the ceasefire?"

At a meeting with journalists on Friday, Zelensky addressed these issues directly, especially the questions about verification. He said Ukraine was more than able to verify a ceasefire in the air and the sea. But he said the surveillance and intelligence capabilities of American and European aircraft and satellites would be needed to monitor the front line.

Ukraine believes Putin's conditions of detail can be addressed. Much harder to deal with are Putin's objections of principle. He said any deal should "proceed from the assumption that this cessation should lead to long-term peace and eliminate the root causes of this crisis". By that, he means his objections to the expansion of the Nato military alliance and the very existence of Ukraine as a sovereign independent state.

There is very little chance of that being addressed in any immediate interim ceasefire. Not for nothing did G7 foreign ministers meeting in Canada emphasise Ukraine's territorial integrity "and its right to exist and its freedom, sovereignty and independence".

This is why Zelensky said "Russia is the only party that wants the war to continue and diplomacy to break down".

So what could happen now? Well the ball is in America's court. President Trump could choose to step up pressure on Russia as Ukraine is demanding. He could impose more sanctions on Russia - and countries buying its cheap oil and gas. He could also give more military and intelligence support to Ukraine. Or alternatively Trump could offer Russia more concessions to get a deal over the line, a possibility that worries some here in Kyiv. Much of the contact between the US and Russia has been held in secret compared to the very public diplomatic pressure imposed on Ukraine.

That is why Zelensky is calling out Russia's delaying tactics and urging the West to put more pressure on Putin. He may also be enjoying seeing Russia in the spotlight, having been the butt of American diplomatic efforts for more than a month since Trump and Putin had their first telephone call.

The bottom line is that Trump has driven a diplomatic bulldozer through many international issues since his inauguration, including the war in Ukraine.

But now he has come up against the walls of the Kremlin and they may be harder to get through.

Trump wants a fast end to the fighting. Putin wants a "painstaking" discussion about details and principles. Two incompatible imperatives held by two stubborn leaders used to getting their way. Who will blink first? The prospects of a ceasefire are by no means certain, for all the American expressions of "cautious optimism".