To what extent is hurricane predicting accurate? Meteorologists describe.

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts through Nov. 30.

 

 Ginger Zee's explanation of hurricanes

Experts say that although hurricane forecasting has advanced significantly in recent decades, there is still a gap in the public's knowledge and comprehension of forecasting components.

Marshall Shepherd, former president of the American Meteorological Society and director of the University of Georgia's Atmospheric Sciences Program, told Abcnews24hr that the forecasts for Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton, two of the most recent strong tropical systems, were almost accurate.

Shepherd noted that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's track estimates for the present day are typically very accurate. According to Shepherd, the intensity estimates are significantly more accurate than they were in previous decades, while being somewhat more difficult because of the storm's constantly shifting internal properties and their interactions with the ocean's surface.

Small changes in atmospheric conditions can have a large impact on forecasts," according to the NOAA.

GeoColor satellite image of Hurricane Helene, September 26, 2024.
NOAA 

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, which rates the strength of hurricane wind speeds, and the "cone of uncertainty," which depicts the likely path of a tropical cyclone's center, are two crucial forecasting indicators that have gotten "immensely better" over the past 30 years. Paul Miller, Louisiana State University's assistant professor of coastal meteorology, 

The National Hurricane Center has produced more accurate forecasts as a consequence of recent research that has reduced model forecast errors for track and intensity across all lead times, according to NOAA.

Technological improvements have also improved accuracy, the experts said

Eric Blake, a senior hurricane scientist at the National Hurricane Center, stated in 2022 that the technology at the time was unable to predict Hurricane Andrew when it reached Florida in 1992. The storm impacted South Florida as a Category 5 storm. At the time, meteorologists relied heavily on statistics, "persistence, and forecaster intuition," Blake added.

On August 30, 2005, a day after Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, Canal Street is flooded.
Graythen, Chris/Getty Images 

According to Miller, however, the "biggest change" has been the advancements in computing power.

Forecasters can now see inside a hurricane every 30 seconds thanks to sophisticated satellite imaging. Hurricane hunters pilot aircraft into the storm's heart to gather wind and radar data. According to Miller, new models predict the storm's potential future behavior based on its existing structure.

"It's really impressive to go back and look at the accuracy of forecasts since the late '90s, or even back to Hurricane Katrina," Miller stated.

"Forecast uncertainty," according to NOAA, is a measure of meteorologists' confidence in storm prediction. "High uncertainty" storms are difficult to forecast, while "low uncertainty" forecasts are those in which models appear to agree on a potential outcome.

In an effort to enhance forecasts, NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory is researching the environmental elements that affect tropical cyclone intensity estimates.

 On October 11, 2024, Hurricane Milton ravaged Florida, causing major damage to houses in Port St. Lucie, Florida, as seen from above.
Getty Images via Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo/AFP

However, despite increasing accuracy, meteorologists are concerned about the message being understood, particularly since hurricanes are a "multi-hazard phenomenon," Miller said. It is hard for those outside the track to imagine what the storm might bring to their location, even though everyone's focus is on the system itself, Miller said.

Hours before the storm even reached land, Hurricane Milton sparked terrible tornadoes in Southeast Florida, which is far beyond the storm's path, while Hurricane Helene caused devastating flash flooding in Appalachia near Asheville, North Carolina.

On September 28, 2024, Asheville, North Carolina, saw record-breaking flooding and devastation due to Hurricane Helene's heavy rainfall.
Gerrits, Melissa Sue/Getty Images


 

Days before Helene arrived into the Asheville region, there was a forecast for excessive rainfall, flash floods, and a higher chance of tornado activity in South Florida before Milton.

Shepherd claimed that although the terms are "meaningful" to meteorologists, "I don't think the average person knows how to translate what excessive rainfall means."

"I think that the severity of those tornadoes is really what caught people off guard," Shepherd said. "I believe that we were all communicating the danger of tornadoes."